When Microsoft's new, rewritten operating system appears in five years or more, they will find a vastly different audience than exists even today. It will be very, very interesting to see whether they can move the market one more time.Today I ran across an article that I think you should read:
http://www.businessinsider.com/microsofts-business-could-collapse-2010-6
This spring I purchased a powerful new desktop computer, with Windows 7 (64 bit) and I'm very pleased with it to date. But I'm a programmer.
My daughter brought that Linux netbook out to visit in Colorado, and she hooked right up to our wireless network, managed her E-Mail, posted some college work, and probably made a number of Facebook updates.
There will certainly be a place for desktop computers in the future. But as developers, there is no way to ignore the appeal of that little Linux notebook. Mind you, disconnected from the Internet her machine has limited appeal. But actually, my own desktop has the same problem.
Oh, I can code without an Internet connection, and can write in Word, or update an Excel spreadsheet. I can even write E-Mails, or blog articles, and save them to post when I am connected. But truthfully, without an Internet connection, I feel cut off.
I bet I'm not alone. So if we've all made that jump - where a fast Internet connection is just something that we HAVE to have, all the time - then I postulate that we are FAR more willing to consider Internet-based software than we were a few years ago. Where the software resides makes little or no difference to us. Performance, price, and suitability to task become the only measuring sticks.
I think that Microsoft will have some staying power in small and large offices. You will find Windows boxes in rep firms for many years to come. But if an application vendor ten years from now tells you that the best way to run their app locally is on a Chrome machine, that won't be nearly the issue that say Windows vs. Mac is today.
You will have employees that run Chrome computers. And you'll have a few Windows computers in your shop too. And of course, you'll have at least one sales rep that clings stubbornly to her Mac. And you will rightfully expect that your software providers be able to work with any or all of them.
As an application provider, writing multiple versions of a software solution for several operating systems is not terribly efficient. The obvious refuge is a web server, or cloud-based system that shields the developer from the vagaries of any particular local OS.
When the day comes that you can buy a Dell computer with Chrome or Linux for far less money than one with a Windows operating system, software companies without some sort of Internet-based solution will be swimming upstream.
